Judging results too early: a sure way to fail

 
A friend of mine and I decided back in February that we would back our self-acclaimed above-average rugby knowledge and that at some point in the course of 16 rounds of Super Rugby, we should be able to pick at least one perfect week where a maximum multi comes in for us ie. correctly picking the winner in each game for that round using accumulated odds. We also placed hedge bets on certainties to cover our weekly investment. Smart, and responsible!

Our rationale was that even one win would be enough to cover not only our initial investment, but also a night away with our respective partners. Cheap accommodation of course, but it’s the thought that counts, right?

It should be noted at this point that we are not addicted gamblers. I actually don’t like the lottery or gambling for socio-economic reasons that are beyond the scope of this article, so for me to partake in this activity even was a bit out of character. But I thought, “Why not? A bit of fun, a way to keep in touch and it’ll use the grey matter!”

Or so we thought.

 

Lingering Strategic Doubt

After a few weeks, we’d won nothing, not even the hedge bets. Zilch. Most weekends we’re not even making it past the Friday games!

So we changed tactics and won one bet, but it was a minor multi (3 legs – picking all New Zealand teams to win). We kept on with our maximum multi strategy and forged ahead. Still no cashola. Another bet came in for us, but again, a minor multi (4 legs, Kiwi teams again!).

In 12 weeks, we’d won a paltry $68 back. Our ‘accommodation’ is starting to look like a tent on my lounge floor and we’d be forced to drink tap water and eat 2 minute noodles. Oh, the shame!

We then accepted that we have differences in opinion, so we decided to split the betting stake 4 ways and each place our own $5 bets in a 2-man syndicate. And, you guessed it, still nothing.

Our lack of success has cast continual doubt over our strategy, but we’re still having fun and having a laugh about it!

 

A Similar Story

Last year I started taking rhodiola – a wonder herb in my humble opinion – it has a long history of success in energy maintenance, weight loss, and stress management.

However, when I started taking it, as I am quite sensitive to most medicine, I used to get a surge of energy and feel a bit on edge – like that pseudoephedrine hit – for about 15 minutes.

After a few weeks of this, I thought, “Do I really need this? It’s way too much. Surely it can’t be good for me. Maybe my body is just not accepting it.” So I stopped. Cue the lack of energy again, crashing into bed at 10pm, sloth-like movement in the morning…

So, I thought I’d give it one more shot. A few weeks later the edgy feeling stopped, my body got used to it and I had energy virtually 18 hours a day.

 

Welcome to Everyday Life

too-soon-to-quitSo often we try something once – or worse still, not at all – and it doesn’t match our expectations, or it produces unexpected outcomes, and we quit!

This happens in business – bosses let go a ‘poor’ worker before giving them a proper chance or before finding out what is hampering their performance.

It happens in sport – the English Premier League has more managers hired and fired in a single season than I change underwear. Just think of your favourite sports team and how quickly fans are to point the finger at the coach or manager after a few losses.

Then when the team ‘miraculously’ turns the corner with a surprise win, suddenly the coach is a god! In exactly the same way, even good results are judged too early.

 

Stop it! I’m Confused and My Head Hurts!

It stands to reason that strategy is the most important factor in determining favourable outcomes. If you do play the lottery, would you pick different numbers or the same numbers every week? The same of course! And play every week. That’s a good strategy, as I am led to believe by people who have won a few bob, even if it takes 20 years.

So when is a good point to change tactics? If I knew the answer to that, I’d be more popular and wealthier than Elon Musk.

My only suggestions are the ones I use:

  • Take action – as my university maths lecturer said, “Step zero, try something. You don’t get marks for a blank sheet of paper.”
  • Ask someone else that has achieved the results you are after – get a mentor or swallow your pride and ask someone who knows more on the subject than you. It’s actually an efficient use of your time.
  • Try a few things before settling on one strategy.
  • Then stick with whatever your gut tells you works! Keep going, keep going, keep going.

 

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